Friday, May 31, 2013
P. Krugman and G. Papandreou V N. Gingrich and A. Laffer
My preferred duo won the Munk debate. The motion was:
Be it resolved, tax the rich (more)…For P Krugman's presentation check here
iAGS 2013 is titled Failed Austerity in Europe: The Way Out
The report was commissioned by the S&D Group in the European Parliament and prepared by three economic institutes: the OFCE (Paris); the IMK (Düsseldorf) and the ECLM (Copenhagen).
My annotation of the Executive Summary
They go on with this
As I assume the report itself is similarly slanted... so I will pass it by.
My annotation of the Executive Summary
The euro area suffered primarily from a balance of payments crisis due to the build-up of current account imbalances between its members.I would argue that that was the root of the EZ crisis, and fully agree with the authors who refer to
a fallacious diagnosis according to which the crisis stems from the fiscal profligacy of member statesIf Greece and, to a lesser extent, Portugal are guilty of fiscal profligacy does not change the core argument. Greece is a very special case.
The sustainability of public debt is a major concern for national governments, the European Commission and financial markets, but successive and unprecedented consolidation programmes have proven unsuccessful in tackling this issue.I am not quite happy with that. The sustainability of public debt is definitely NOT the issue of the consolidation programmes of all EZ members. The issue is, at least in the short-to-medium-term, to bring down annual deficits to the level of 3% of GDP as provided for by the Growth and Stability Pact. It was an issue for the countries under "troika" loan support.
During normal times, sustainability of public debt is a long-term issue, whereas unemployment and growth are short-term ones. Yet, fearing an alleged imminent surge in interest rates and constrained by the Stability and Growth Pact, and although transition towards more normal times had not been completed, member states and the European Commission reversed priorities.This is somewhat odd. What do the authors suggest is that governments made their priorities to increase unemployment and depress growth.
They go on with this
But it is equally reflecting a dogmatic view in which fiscal policy is incapable of demand managementOne can accuse the ECB, Commission, Eurogroup, IMF, and also national governments of many things but not that they are dogmatic neo-liberals.
As I assume the report itself is similarly slanted... so I will pass it by.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Warren Buffet: “listen to those who insist you’re wrong”!.. Paul Krugman....
Great quote from Warren Buffet.
h/t to Thierry Malleret at Pieria
Listen to contrarian opinions! This is what some of the world’s most successful fund managers do. As this year’s Berkshire annual meeting, for example, Warren Buffet invited Doug Kass, who’d taken a short position against Berkshire, to take part in the meeting, inviting everybody to “listen to those who insist you’re wrong”!
Paul Krugman advises to:
“Pay attention to what intelligent people are saying, even if they do not have your customs or speak your analytical language.”
h/t to Thierry Malleret at Pieria
Listen to contrarian opinions! This is what some of the world’s most successful fund managers do. As this year’s Berkshire annual meeting, for example, Warren Buffet invited Doug Kass, who’d taken a short position against Berkshire, to take part in the meeting, inviting everybody to “listen to those who insist you’re wrong”!
Paul Krugman advises to:
“Pay attention to what intelligent people are saying, even if they do not have your customs or speak your analytical language.”
EUobserver.com / News In Brief / New euro surveillance rules come into force
EUobserver.com / News In Brief / New euro surveillance rules come into force
First substantial milestone towards a more federal EZ
First substantial milestone towards a more federal EZ
Friday, May 24, 2013
Michael Pettis thinks that.....
in Spain you are not really supposed to talk about abandoning the euro if you want to be taken seriously
His take of the recent "good"news about the Eurozone is that
the debt-burdened countries of peripheral Europe are going to suffer a decade of weak growth, high unemployment, and contentious politics, all the while the debt growing faster than the economy.
Matina Stevis dissects IMF's “Sovereign Debt Restructuring — Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund’s Legal and Policy Framework,”
and she does a great job. She sees a future dissociation of the IMF from the euro zone.
Reading her column makes reading the IMF paper redundant
Reading her column makes reading the IMF paper redundant
Barry Eichengreen interview for Cleveland FED
We now know that the move to monetary union was premature. Monetary union requires at least limited banking union. Banking union requires at least limited fiscal union. And fiscal union requires at least limited political union. The members of the euro zone are now moving as fast as they can, which admittedly is not all that fast, to retrofit their monetary union to include a banking union, a fiscal union, and some form of political union. Time will tell whether or not they succeed.
And more: "But even if hindsight tells us that moving to a monetary union in 1999 was premature, it is important to understand that history doesn’t always run in reverse. The Europeans now will have to make their monetary union work. If they don’t, they’ll pay a high price. (emphasis added)
And more: "But even if hindsight tells us that moving to a monetary union in 1999 was premature, it is important to understand that history doesn’t always run in reverse. The Europeans now will have to make their monetary union work. If they don’t, they’ll pay a high price. (emphasis added)
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Ο Christopher T. Mahoney συμφωνεί με Π. Λαφαζάνη
Ο τ.Αντιπρόεδρος της Moody's θεωρεί ότι As long as the troika persist in their deflation policies, there is no hope for growth for Southern Europe. Επο πλέον,
Χμ... ενδιαφέρουσα άποψη!
Why have a prolonged depression prior to D-Day, if D-Day is inevitable? Right now the most important question is whether there is any hope of negotiating an orderly exit with the troika, including transitional financial assistance.
Χμ... ενδιαφέρουσα άποψη!
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Paul Krugman: How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled
Arguably the definitive answer to the austerians by you-know-who in The New York Review of Books
He takes the opp of a post by Noah Smith, a young economist buck of note who bloggs at Noahpinion to come back to the subject, and use yet another new angle.
He takes the opp of a post by Noah Smith, a young economist buck of note who bloggs at Noahpinion to come back to the subject, and use yet another new angle.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)