Simon Wren-Lewis : "Can a country be too competitive?"

mainly macro: Can a country be too competitive?: In my earlier post on the failure of the Eurozone to understand the lessons of the Great Depression, I talked about Germany becoming ‘too ...



also, Francesco Saraceno : "Labour Costs: Who is the Outlier?"

Paul Krugman : "Being Bad Europeans" - NYTimes.com

Being Bad Europeans - NYTimes.com

If you try to identify countries whose policies were way out of line before the crisis, have hurt Europe since the crisis, and refuse to learn from experience, everything points to Germany as the worst actor. ...

via Mark Thoma 

"Monnet’s Error?" L. Guiso, P. Sapienza , L. Zingales

Thanks to Mark Buchanan at Bloomberg View



www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/fall 2014/fall2014bpea_guiso_sapienza_zingales.pdf

Labour markets, human capital and inequality - OECD

Labour markets, human capital and inequality - OECD

German Exceptionalism? An Illusion About to be Laid Bare | OUTSIDE THE BOXES: ALTEGRIS BLOG

Many thanks to John Mauldin



German Exceptionalism? An Illusion About to be Laid Bare | OUTSIDE THE BOXES: ALTEGRIS BLOG

Why Germans Are More Productive - Business Insider

Why Germans Are More Productive - Business Insider

Daniel Gros : Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area? | The Centre for European Policy Studies

Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area? | The Centre for European Policy Studies



"The author advises that the aim of economic policy should be to increase consumption, rather than investment overall. Increasing infrastructure investment might be justified in some member countries, but it is not a ‘free lunch’ when efficiency levels are low, which seems to be the case in some of the financially stressed euro area countries."

Does Management Matter In Schools?

CEP | Publications | Results by Abstract

Nicholas  Bloom,  Renata  Lemos,  Raffaella  Sadun,  John  Van Reenen  

Philippe Legrain on Europe | Five Books | Five Books

Philippe Legrain on Europe | Five Books | Five Books

Give Greece a Chance - Bloomberg View

Give Greece a Chance - Bloomberg View

"If too much austerity puts Syriza in charge, expect an end to fiscal discipline. The damage, though, won't stop there. The entire European project will be endangered. Tsipras might be willing to force losses on creditors unilaterally. Rising opposition parties in Portugal and Spain are similarly inclined, and they are watching closely. If markets begin to fear a wave of defaults, the resulting turmoil could thrust the whole of Europe back into crisis."

The Utopian · The Thirteen Commandments of Neoliberalism

The Utopian · The Thirteen Commandments of Neoliberalism

" It is very important to have some familiarity with neoliberal ideas, if only to resist simple-minded characterizations"

P. KrugmanL "I was wrong"

Great quote: "If you never get something wrong.... something is wrong with you"

Φώτης Γεωργελές : Edito 505/19.11.14 | www.athensvoice.gr

the paper - Edito 505 | www.athensvoice.gr

How close did the Dutch come to ditching the euro?

Open Europe blog: How close did the Dutch come to ditching the euro?

Barry Eichengreen at the FT : The bond market’s dance over European debt will not last forever - FT.com

The bond market’s dance over European debt will not last forever - FT.com

The implied surpluses are mind-boggling. Under reasonable assumptions about growth rates and interest rates, the average annual primary surplus for the decade ending in 2030 would exceed 4 per cent for Spain, 5 per cent for Ireland, Italy and Portugal, and 7 per cent for Greece. Put simply, no country can run such monumental surpluses for such extended periods without inciting a taxpayer revolt.

....

But sadly growth cannot be conjured up out of thin air.

European policy makers have shown an inability to conjure it up any other way.

The other alternative is debt restructuring. European officials continue to dance around the idea of writing down public debt, promising Greece lower interest rates and longer maturities but denying the need for more fundamental restructuring and for applying such measures more widely. The events of recent weeks make clear that they will not be able to dance much longer.

America’s bank bailouts worked - The Washington Post

America’s bank bailouts worked - The Washington Post

The United States actually got the big details of the bailout right – and for this reason, American taxpayers made money on the deal: about $8-10 billion, excluding the non-bank parts of the bailout.

The United Kingdom and Germany, by way of contrast, both enacted bailouts that were less effective in helping taxpayers share in the potential upside of the bailout. As a result, U.K. and German taxpayers were stuck with large book losses on their bailouts: $14 billion for the United Kingdom, and $55 billion for Germany, which is a lot of money, even for German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Κώστας Λαπαβίτσας και "διαβουκόλευση" στοιχείων της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ

τα στοιχεία δείχνουν ότι στις αρχές του 2010 η ελληνική οικονομία φαινόταν να περνάει σε ανάκαμψη ...

Δηλαδή; Αν το 2010 συνέχιζε να υπάρχει δυνατότητα δανεισμού, όλα θα ήταν μια χαρά. Κάτι δεν πάει καλά όμως!
Ο κ. Κ.Λ. πήρε στοιχεία της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ και "κατασκεύασε" τον Πίνακα 2 στην ανάρτησή του, που πράγματι δείχνει αυτό που ισχυρίζεται!
Μόνο που ο Πίνακας 2 λέει ψέματα. (είναι σχετικά εύκολο να πεις ψέματα αν ξέρεις Στατιστική).
Τα ανεπεξέργαστα στοιχεία της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ για το ΑΕΠ (% αλλαγή 3-μήνου) είναι
2008: Q1   +7,0 %         2009: Q1  -4,7%       2010: Q1  -1,7 %
          Q2    -0,8                       Q2  +2,6                    Q2  -2,7
          Q3    -0,6                       Q3  -0,4                     Q3  -3,4
          Q4    -1,1                       Q4  -0,1                     Q4  -1,5

Από την "άφιξη" της κρίσης - 2008 Q2- μέχρι και σήμερα, τα μόνα 3-μηνα με θετικό πρόσημο είναι το Β΄του 2009 και τα Α' (0.8%) και Β' (0,3%) του 2014.
Πού την είδε ο κ. Κ.Λ. την ανάκαμψη στις αρχές του 2010   ?!?!?!




 

Albert Weale, Policy Network - The democratic disconnect

Policy Network - The democratic disconnect



In the eurozone, the EU needs greater legitimacy at the national level not only to secure space for domestic politics but also to secure respect for social and economic commitments over time

Greece lightening | The Economist

Daily chart: Greece lightening | The Economist

Exiting recession is an important moment, but only the first step in Greece's recovery. 

Matt O'Brien at WP: Greece’s recession is over, but its depression will be the worst in history  

Henry Kissinger on State of Global Politics - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Interview with Henry Kissinger on State of Global Politics - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Peter Dorman: Rules versus Discretion in Macropolicy

EconoSpeak: Rules versus Discretion in Macropolicy: Economists really like policy rules.  Remember the monetarist bubble of the late 70s?  Just follow a rule for steady expansion of M2, and le...

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Tax Systems

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Tax Systems

Συριζα καί Επιχειρηματικά (κόκκινα) Δάνεια

Σήμερα ο βουλευτής του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Κοντονής, ή κάπως έτσι, ρωτήθηκε γιά τα ληξιπρόθεσμα επιχειρηματικά δάνεια. Εξήγησε, με όλη την σιγουριά του αδαούς, οτι η αρνητική θέση του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ οφείλεται στο ότι "το καρτέλ των τραπεζών είναι σε κομβικό σημείο" να αποφασίζει γι αυτά!
Προφανώς ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ προορίζει τον κ.Κοντονή για να αποφασίζει και να κρίνει ποιές επιχειρήσεις θα κλείσουν και ποιές θα (ανα)-χρηματοδοτηθούν. Και καλλά, ο κ. Κοντονής πλέει σε πελάγη άγνοιας, το οικονομικό επιτελείο του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δέν  χαμπαρίζει απο τραπεζική λειτουργία; Σίγουρα ξέρει, αλλά προφανώς δέν απευθύνεται σε πολίτες που ξέρουν και βάζει ταλαίπωρους Κοντονήδες να λένε χαζομάρες.

disclaimer (ερμηνευτική ρήτρα)
Τούτο το blog ΔΕΝ είναι για σχολιασμό, αλλά δέν...άντεξα!

Timothy Taylor : Why Experts Buy Generic

Οι ειδικοί καί οι ¨πληροφορημένοι" αγοράζουν γενόσημα!



CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Why Experts Buy Generic

Draghi’s ECB management: the leaked Geithner files | Brussels blog

Draghi’s ECB management: the leaked Geithner files | Brussels blog

How Can Scandinavians Tax So Much?

JEP (28,4) p. 77 - How Can Scandinavians Tax So Much?

Thomas Palley : " Rethinking wage vs. profit-led growth theory with implications for policy analysis "

Thomas Palley » Blog Archive » Rethinking wage vs. profit-led growth theory with implications for policy analysis

Did anyone predict the 2008 crash? Will anyone predict the next crash? | Fabius Maximus

Did anyone predict the 2008 crash? Will anyone predict the next crash? | Fabius Maximus

mainly macro: Getting the Germany argument right

mainly macro: Getting the Germany argument right: As the Eurozone experiences a prolonged demand-deficient recession, and given Germany’s pivotal role in making that happen, it is important...



Michael Miebach 's column for Policy Network : "There is no 'German problem' in the Eurozone"

Paul De Grauwe : "Greece: The start of a systemic crisis of the Eurozone?" | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Greece: The start of a systemic crisis of the Eurozone? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Things are different in some individual countries, in Greece in particular, a country with a weak political system that has been adding government debt at a much higher rate than the rest of the Eurozone and that in addition has a debt level exceeding 100% of GDP. So, while the Eurozone as a whole is no closer to a debt crisis than is the US, some of its member states have been moving closer to such a crisis.

This column, first published 15 December 2009, shows ...

The Economist/Free Exchange : Economists' roundtable on the euro zone

Sony Kapoor of Re-Define
Yanis Varoufakis
Demosthenes Tambakis of the University of Cambridge
Ugo Panizza, of the Graduate Institute, Geneva.
Andrea Ferrero, of Oxford University
Paul de Grauwe of the LSE

John Eatwell : "The Anatomy of the Pensions “Crisis”"

via Frances Coppola

mbz.net.pl/eftepe/Eatwell.pdf

Chris Bertram :"Inequality, migration and economists" — Crooked Timber

Inequality, migration and economists — Crooked Timber

EUROPP – Book Review: "Is the EU Doomed?" by Jan Zielonka

EUROPP – Book Review: Is the EU Doomed? by Jan Zielonka

Simon Wren-Lewis : Germany and pre-recession cost cutting

mainly macro: Germany and pre-recession cost cutting

Simon Wren-Lewis : Germany and pre-recession cost cutting

mainly macro: Germany and pre-recession cost cutting

Luxembourg Leaks, Secret Tax Deals Exposed | International Consortium of Investigative Journalists

Luxembourg Leaks, Secret Tax Deals Exposed | International Consortium of Investigative Journalists

Commission spokesperson dodges awkward questions on tax evasion, while Juncker dodges the press

Verhofstadt calls on Junker to come clean

Dutch tax regime similar to Luxembourg's, auditors find

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Letters of November 2010

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Letters of November 2010

Charlemagne/The Econimist 

Christian Odendahl of CER : "A Greek programme for Greece"

A Greek programme for Greece | CER

Adriano Bosoni, "Traveling Through Multiple Europes" | Stratfor

Traveling Through Multiple Europes | Stratfor

Morris Goldstein | The 2014 EU-Wide Bank Stress Test Lacks Credibility

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | The 2014 EU-Wide Bank Stress Test Lacks Credibility

Paul Hockenos | Germany's Polite Populists | Foreign Affairs | Foreign Affairs

Paul Hockenos | Germany's Polite Populists | Foreign Affairs | Foreign Affairs

"Although few Germans openly identify as right wing, many people across the political spectrum harbor illiberal political beliefs."

Ugo Panizza : Public Debt Risks in Italy

repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP13-2014.pdf

John Muellbauer : "Quantitative Easing for the People" : Project Syndicate

Rather than continue to allow misguided conventional thinking, centered on German economic ideology, to impede effective action, the ECB must pursue quantitative easing (QE) “for the people” – an adaptation of Milton Friedman’s “helicopter drops” strategy – to reverse deflation and get the eurozone back on track.

Greece : EU Commission Forcasts , Autumn 2014

ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2014_autumn/el_en.pdf

Uncertainty a major risk
Greece’s GDP growth could turn out weaker than forecast if uncertainty on policy implementation has a stronger-than-projected effect on confidence
and investment, or if geopolitical events have a bigger-than-expected impact in the region. On the upside, exports may exceed expectations and investors’ confidence could pick up owing, in particular to the successful processing of nonperforming loans and to the positive results of the Asset Quality Review and stress tests. Overall, the balance of risks points to the downside since uncertainty is significant for the next few months.

Bernard Delbecque : EconoMonitor » A Coordinated Fiscal Response to Revive the Euro Area Economy

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » A Coordinated Fiscal Response to Revive the Euro Area Economy

Douglas Elliott : Three Potential Economic Outcomes for Europe | RealClearMarkets

Three Potential Economic Outcomes for Europe | RealClearMarkets

1. It was just a glitch (20% probability?)
2. The Euro Crisis is Back (probability 10%?)
3. The Usual Muddling Through (70% probability?)

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report



Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. 

Δημόσιοι Υπάλληλοι Έβγαλαν στο Εξωτερικό 1,5 δις.

Το θέμα της  περασμένης βδομάδας. WOW, ανατριχίλα!

Συνέχεια όμως μαθαίνουμε ότι, κατά κύριο λόγο, πρόκειται για γιατρούς και εκπαιδευτικούς, που τυχαίνει να είναι/ήταν  και Δημόσιοι Υπάλληλοι.

Πού και ποια η έκπληξη;

Το 2012 δημοσιεύτηκε έρευνα (στο αρχείο μου και εδώ pdf) για το φαινόμενο στην Ελλάδα, της οποίας ένα συμπέρασμα ήταν ότι ο πρώτος και ο τρίτος από τους κορυφαίους κλάδους στην απόκρυψη φορολογητέας ύλης ήταν Γιατροί, και Εκπαιδευτικοί. Η πλειοψηφία αυτών απασχολούνται στο δημόσιο.

Η κυβέρνηση, για δικούς της λόγους, επέλεξε να παίξει ένα επικοινωνιακό παιχνίδι. Τα ΜΜΕ το μεγέθυναν.