How Greece Can Run Out of Cash and What ECB’s Draghi Can Do - Bloomberg Business

How Greece Can Run Out of Cash and What ECB’s Draghi Can Do - Bloomberg Business

Greek banks’ eligibility for ordinary ECB cash facilities, using junk-rated Greek government bonds as collateral, has always been subject to the country being in a euro-area bailout program.

Αλ. Τσίπρας: Θα σεβαστούμε τις υποχρεώσεις μας | ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ | Η ΚΑΘΗΜΕΡΙΝΗ

Αλ. Τσίπρας στο Bloomberg: Θα σεβαστούμε τις υποχρεώσεις μας | ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ | Η ΚΑΘΗΜΕΡΙΝΗ



statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News not column.

Greece Will Repay ECB, IMF, Reach Deal With EU, Tsipras Says 

IMF 5th Review June 2014

www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf

The Greek Experiment | Real-World Economics Review Blog

The Greek Experiment | Real-World Economics Review Blog



The problem is that, e.g. Ireland, if free from the Fiscal Pact could borrow and reverse austerity. Greece could not. Would the author advise his pension fund to buy Greek bonds?

The markets hammered Greece, - Quartz

The markets hammered Greece, yes, again - Quartz

The Irish Times : Greek government rejects any debt negotiations with ‘anti-European’ troika

Helena Smith, The Guardian : Greece’s finance minister vows to shun officials from troika

S.Bouras & N.Stamouli, WSJ : European Minister Dijsselbloem Warns Greece Against Unilateral Moves

Tim Wostall, Forbes : Greece On The Verge Of Going Nuclear In Its Rejection Of The Troika (comment)

L.Papadimas & A.Koutantou, Reuters : Greece says will not cooperate with 'troika' or seek aid extension

Greece’s gamble - Opinion - The Boston Globe

Greece’s gamble - Opinion - The Boston Globe

Greece’s Problem: Persistent Fiscal Irresponsibility and Too Few Reforms

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece’s Problem: Persistent Fiscal Irresponsibility and Too Few Reforms

Hamish McRae: The odds are on a Greek debt deal. But it won't work - Hamish McRae - Business Comment - The Independent

Hamish McRae: The odds are on a Greek debt deal. But it won't work - Hamish McRae - Business Comment - The Independent

there is a strong probability, let’s say 80 per cent that, after a difficult couple of months, a deal will be patched up, allowing longer repayments, lower interest rates, some formula that reduces the headline level of debt without reducing its substance. In exchange for that, the Greek government comes up with a new set of economic proposals that allows the rest of the eurozone to claim that it is making appropriate structural reforms. Both sides will claim common sense has won, and Greece does not formally default and it keeps the euro.

Gregory Papanikos : With Greece backing euro but Syriza in government, another election may beckon

With Greece backing euro but Syriza in government, another election may beckon

Post-Syriza post | longandvariable

Post-Syriza post | longandvariable

It’s also compelling that the Troika struck the wrong deal, and Syriza’s craziness, if it is real, might give them the credibility to extract one that is better for Greece and the Eurozone as a whole.

But there are some negatives.

EconMatters: Greek Default Risk Spikes to 76%

EconMatters: Greek Default Risk Spikes to 76%: By Tyler Durden at  ZeroHedge   Greek default risk has surged in recent days and today as it becomes clear what Syriza expects from Europ...

The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists

www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR600/RR637/RAND_RR637.pdf

How should the European Monetary Union deal with reform unwilling States? | Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW)

How should the European Monetary Union deal with reform unwilling States? | Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW)

9 reasons Greece's experiment with the radical left is doomed to failure - Europe - World - The Independent

9 reasons Greece's experiment with the radical left is doomed to failure - Europe - World - The Independent

Yanis Varoufakis Greece's New Finance Minister - Bloomberg View

Yanis Varoufakis Greece's New Finance Minister - Bloomberg View

 He and his colleagues in the new Greek government are still in the position of supplicants, even thought it looks like they’re planning to do their supplicating in a pretty confrontational way. That’s awfully hard to get right.

Clive Crook considers "Why Europe Will Cave to Greece"

Therefore, in the end, the EU won't offer nothing. But the posturing on both sides needs to stop and discussions of a possible compromise need to start quickly, or Tsipras and the EU could talk themselves into the worst-case scenario they both want to avoid.

Leonid Bershidsky : Sanctions Are Now Syriza's Bargaining Chip

If Syriza is indeed headed for a confrontation with Germany, it risks jeopardizing its chief goal, the one that got it elected: a big write-off of its public debt. This is vastly more important to the Greek economy than any boost the country might get from resuming fruit exports to Russia or hosting more Russian tourists. Yet without the consent of Germany, Greece's biggest creditor, no write-off is possible. 

 

RealTime Economic | Greece Has Chosen, but It Doesn’t Get to Decide by Itself

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece Has Chosen, but It Doesn’t Get to Decide by Itself

A hard deadline for any new agreement between Greece and the euro area seems likely to be late June 2015. It is then that a number of Greek bonds held by the ECB and euro area countries reach maturity and must be repaid. The ECB is legally prevented from rolling over any Greek debt (this would be against the EU Treaty), and in the absence of any new deal the Greek government is not likely to have the cash available to pay.

New Greek debt deal will mean more brinkmanship

New Greek debt deal will mean more brinkmanship

mainly macro: Post Recession Lessons

mainly macro: Post Recession Lessons: If you are familiar with this blog, you will know that I regard 2010 as a fateful year for the advanced economies in their recovery from re...

Greece had to default because previous governments had been profligate and had hidden that fact from everyone, including the Greek people. Recessions rather than booms tend to be when things like that get exposed. If Greece had been a country with its own exchange rate, then it would have been a footnote in global macroeconomic history: fiscal stimulus that had begun in all three countries/zones in 2009 would have continued (or at least not been reversed), and the recovery would have been robust.

Instead Greece was part of the Eurozone, a monetary union that had been implemented in such a way that it was particularly vulnerable to the threat of default by one of its members. Policy makers in other union countries prevaricated, partly to protect their own banks, partly because they worried about contagion.

Syriza and debt talks: Estimates from a Rubinstein bargain approach | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Syriza and debt talks: Estimates from a Rubinstein bargain approach | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

The Economist: Why the Greek result matters

The Economist explains: Why the Greek result matters | The Economist

Free Exchange : The Greek Revolt

SYRIZA : Stathis Kouvelakis talks to Sebastian Budgen for the Jacobin

Greece: Phase One | Jacobin



Key Questions

• How did Syriza come into being?
• Is Syriza anticapitalist?
• How to explain its success?
• What are the dynamics within the party?
• How has Syriza’s program evolved?
• Can Syriza form a majority government?
• What are Syriza’s priorities once in power?
• How to tackle the debt and the euro?
• What could Greece look like in July 2015?
• Could Syriza face a military coup?
• How can international solidarity help?

Dan Davies : Greek games and scenarios — Crooked Timber

Greek games and scenarios — Crooked Timber

As a strategy (SS. the nuclear button) it is …cute. I think it might even have worked if tried three years ago; as far as I can tell, something like it was the unspoken threat under the table which led to the restructuring of the Irish bailout liability. You can see that it’s a blackmail game that is best played by a left-wing populist, because in order for the threat to be credible, it needs to be made by someone who is not susceptible to apocalyptic warnings and who is even prepared to dice with the prospect of actual bank runs. I can entirely see why it’s attractive to Syriza and why Tsipras has made it a constant theme of his recent rhetoric that Greece is in a stronger negotiating position than it realises.

...

my guess is that Tsipras’ strategic chain described in section 4 above breaks own pretty early on – the ECB and the Eurosystem structure don’t think that he’s got a credible threat of being able to cause the kind of chaos that could lead to the Euro entirely breaking up. So game over? I think not because there are two further strategic wrinkles.

i.Although Greece can no longer destroy the whole Euro, they could certainly create a situation in which they end up being forced out themselves. This wouldn’t be disastrous, but it would be annoying for the Eurosystem bureaucrats....

ii.And given (i) above, it matters that Tsipras might not be aware that he is bluffing a pair of deuces. If he genuinely believes that the Eurosystem will give in, it is in his interests to create a situation in which Greece could end up being forced out of the Euro, even though this is an outcome that nobody actually wants.

iii.And of course, even if Tsipras understands that the game is up for the strategy in section 4, it’s in his interests to pretend otherwise. 

(How the markets weigh the likely course of) Greek austerity after Syriza | FT Alphaville

Greek austerity after Syriza | FT Alphaville

Gary Jenkins of ING Capital, on the political calculations:

exactly what kind of change will be achievable is a moot point as Ms Merkel may prefer to see Greece leave the Eurozone than allow Mr Tsipras to dictate the entire economic policy of the euro area, although the most likely outcome remains a compromise which maintains the status quo because the alternatives are potentially so negative. 

Giovanni Zanni of Credit Suisse note the key question of the junior party in the coalition.

...   Markets will probably be  worried if ANEL is chosen  

Europe is ready to be more flexible, we believe: see for example the recent relaxation of the Stability Pact rules last week. And Greece has a series of incentives (QE of its bonds, various support mechanisms coming from Europe) to agree on a common path of reforms, we believe. 

Tsipras Forges Anti-Austerity Coalition in EU Challenge - Bloomberg

Tsipras Forges Anti-Austerity Coalition in EU Challenge - Bloomberg

Greek three-year bond yields rose 117 basis points to 11.25 percent, while 10-year yields rose 39 basis points to 8.8 percent. The impact was confined to Greece, as yields on equivalent government debt from Portugal, Spain,Italy and Ireland declined.

“If you are a broad European investor you should be relatively relaxed,” Michael Krautzberger, the London-based head of euro fixed income at the world’s biggest money manager BlackRock Inc. said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse” with Francine Lacqua. “If you look at the long end in Italy, the long end in Spain, they are actually up in price, down in yield. If the market were super concerned about spillover, we wouldn’t have those reactions.”

Mohamed A. El-Erian's view  

Hugo Dixon: Grexit still unlikely after Syriza win

Hugo Dixon: Grexit still unlikely after Syriza win

Syriza’s resounding election victory has pushed Greece closer to quitting the euro zone. But a so-called Grexit is still not the most probable outcome, as the radical left group should be able to cut a deal with its European creditors to avoid bankruptcy provided both sides show maturity. (emphasis added)

while Mike Peacock says "Game On In Greece"

Having to seek a coalition partner may give Tsipras more cover to negotiate pragmatically with European leaders. If he had won an overall majority, the hardliners within his party may have pushed him into a more extreme position. 

but....

it appears he wants to go with the Independent Greeks who firmly oppose the EU/IMF bailout programme, suggesting a more uncompromising stance from Athens.

They would be interesting bedfellows since aside from rejecting the bailout they are right-wing and have little common policy ground with Syriza.

Hm... a coulpe of news items
IMF's Lagarde rules out special treatment for Greece
EU's Oettinger says Greek debt cut would send wrong signal to other countries  

Paul Krugmman : The Greek Stand-By Arrangement

The Greek Stand-By Arrangement - NYTimes.com

Albrecht Ritschl on Germany 's debt to Greece

Germany owes Greece a debt | Albrecht Ritschl | Comment is free | theguardian.com



Germany, Greece and the Marshall Plan     Hans-Werner Sinn 's riposte

Η απειλή τού λαϊκισμού στην φιλελεύθερη δημοκρατία

Διφορούμενες πολιτικές | Foreign Affairs - Hellenic Edition

John Van Reenen : "Solving the growth puzzle"

h/t Philip Lane at the Irish Economy blog



Solving the growth puzzle - Events - IIEA - The Institute of International and European Affairs



ss. slow download of Presentation Slides, but well worth the wait

B. Bossone & R. Wood on OMF (Overt Money Financing)

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Why QE in the Eurozone Is a Mistake

a policy plan is required that provides economic stimulus through a budget deficit without increasing public debt.  This can be achieved by adopting an appropriate form of Overt Money Financing (OMF).  OMF – which is a form of helicopter money – is the most effective instrument to affect aggregate demand in economies under heavy recession and totally limited fiscal space  

An impasse in Paris, a gamble in Athens: how Greece returned to crisis | Reuters

An impasse in Paris, a gamble in Athens: how Greece returned to crisis | Reuters

officials insisted on extra cuts or revenues in the 2015 budget, according to people present.

uncertainty over whether Samaras's government would survive a presidential vote scheduled for February.

Trying to leverage his dwindling political capital, he (Samaras) brought the presidential vote forward to December, but then lost, triggering elections on January 25th.  

In essence, Samaras thinking was: Why bother? I will lose the elections if held in late March. I might as well lose in January. You (the troika) can deal with a SYRIZA government ,and see what happens. At least, the bomb will not go off on my watch.

 

Γιάννης Βαρουφάκης στο La Tribune 20 Γενάρη

"Greece may force Europe to change '

plusieurs hommes politiques de tous horizons m'ont contacté, y compris Alexis Tsipras.

......

je n'avais jamais eu l'intention d'entrer en politique, mais lorsque vous avez établi, en tant qu'économiste, un ensemble de recommandations pour votre pays, et qu'un dirigeant politique vous propose de les mettre en œuvre, il est difficile de refuser. 

...

Si l'Europe et Berlin pensent qu'ils ont le droit moral de nous asphyxier, de nous assassiner, je pense qu'il faut être prêt à les laisser faire.

...

Il n'y aura donc pas de défaut, de coupes franches dans la dette.

Nous, nous voulons utiliser le laser, pour ne pas tuer le patient.

Il faut donc un plan ambitieux au niveau européen. (επενδύσεις).... Il faut donc libérer la capacité d'action de la BEI pour entamer une vraie « nouvelle donne » pour l'Europe et injecter 6 à 7 % du PIB de la zone euro dans l'économie....

....

Je voudrais néanmoins souligner combien cette idée de devoir rembourser la banque centrale est stupide.

....

Il ( Jean-Claude Trichet) brûlera en enfer pour cela ou, au moins, il devrait être jugé devant un tribunal européen... Un gouvernement Syriza ne se comportera pas comme le gouvernement irlandais d'alors. 

....

Alors, je le dis clairement : « la mort est préférable....The term "death" was allegorical. And like any allegory, the less said the better, and this is understandable.

Τώρα ηρέμησα! Αλληγορία ήταν!  

 

 

 

 

Kemal Derviş : "Still No Exit for Greece"

For the sake of Greece and Europe, the new government must work with the European institutions to revise their strategy, while taking responsibility for implementing growth-promoting structural reforms. Greece’s creditors and partners, for their part, must provide the fiscal space needed for the reforms to work. Walking away from Greece because it no longer poses a threat of financial contagion is not a politically viable option. Both sides will have to show more foresight.

Health at a Glance: Europe 2014 : OECD

http://ec.europa.eu/health/reports/docs/health_glance_2014_en.pdf failed to load

Greece's snap elections | The Economist

In graphics: Greece's snap elections | The Economist

the ECB may balk at providing liquidity if the Greek government has repudiated international oversight.  A stand-off with the central bank is one Greece could not win, raising the prospect of a forced exit from the euro.

Effective Eurozone QE: Size matters more than risk-sharing | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Effective Eurozone QE: Size matters more than risk-sharing | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

This benefit of risk-pooling should not be over-emphasised, however. A default by a major Eurozone country is such an extreme event that speculation on what exactly would happen in such circumstances is almost impossible. Would debt default be followed by recapitalisation of central bank losses? Perhaps central banks would remain with negative equity, as the Bank of Chile and the Czech National Bank did for several years. Would default lead to a Eurozone breakup or exit? Would it be associated with inter-government assistance as in the case of Greece? Answering these questions is almost impossible.

Robert Frank : On Inequality

Why have weddings and houses gotten so ridiculously expensive? Blame inequality. - Vox

The ECJ suggests OMT is compatible with the Treaty, but not with the Troika. | Silvia Merler at Bruegel.org

The ECJ suggests OMT is compatible with the Treaty, but not with the Troika. | Silvia Merler at Bruegel.org

The Fourth-Generation Band Auction | The Leisure of the Theory Class

The Fourth-Generation Band Auction | The Leisure of the Theory Class

Δραγασάκης: «Θέλουμε μια ευρωπαϊκή διάσκεψη για το χρέος» | Μεταρρύθμιση

Δραγασάκης: «Θέλουμε μια ευρωπαϊκή διάσκεψη για το χρέος» | Μεταρρύθμιση

 Αν φτάσουμε σε αυτό το σημείο και δεν έχουμε καταλήξει σε συμφωνία, δεν θα είμαστε σε θέση να τους πληρώσουμε. Στη συνέχεια, θα έχουμε πιθανότατα κρίση».

Δηλαδή;

An election in Greece is bringing the Eurozone crisis back - 9 facts about the Eurozone crisis - Vox

An election in Greece is bringing the Eurozone crisis back - 9 facts about the Eurozone crisis - Vox



#6/10 "fact"

An election in Greece is bringing the Eurozone crisis back

Greece is holding an election on January 25 that is bringing the Eurozone crisis issues back into the public eye. The main reason is the risk ......

Why a Grexit is more costly for Germany than a default inside the euro area | Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl at Bruegel.org

Why a Grexit is more costly for Germany than a default inside the euro area | Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl at Bruegel.org

Before assessing the details of the calculations, let us make our view clear: we think that a Greek default and exit are neither likely nor necessary. It is definitely in the interests of both Greece and its euro-area partners to find a comprehensive agreement that would avoid default and exit, which would make everyone much worse-off.

The era of Syriza | The Economist

Charlemagne: The era of Syriza | The Economist

Mr Tsipras has clambered to the top of Greek politics by promising a rupture with the old ways, but in the end may sign up to a classic European fudge.

....

Still, Europe’s establishment is right to worry. The chances of an accident are real. Mr Tsipras must sell a deal to the more militant members of his party, some of whom were never convinced by the euro. Syriza’s leaders are inexperienced negotiators, and their pre-election contacts with some creditors have been slim to non-existent. 

Free Exchange : Why leaving the euro would still be bad for both Greece and the currency area"

 

Will the Greek Elections Ultimately Break the Euro? | RealClearMarkets

Will the Greek Elections Ultimately Break the Euro? | RealClearMarkets

by Douglas Elliott, fellow at Brookings

Europe Rediscovers Nationalism | Stratfor

Europe Rediscovers Nationalism | Stratfor

Steve Keen 'debunks' one or two points on EZ and Greece

at 6:30 mins of his talk with Simon Rose

Share Radio with Simon Rose - Steve Keen's Debtwatch

6μηνη παράταση από την ΕΕ στα ομόλογα που λήγουν το Μάρτιο :: left.gr

Νέο πλήγμα στην κινδυνολογία: 6μηνη παράταση από την ΕΕ στα ομόλογα που λήγουν το Μάρτιο :: left.gr



Ψάχνω 40" σε ECB, Reuters, Bloomberg, κλπ. για διασταύρωση χωρίς επιτυχία.
Μήπως αυτό; Ωστόσο είναι θετική είδηση η παράταση των εγγυήσεων του ελληνικού δημοσίου για 6 μήνες
Γιατί, τούτο, που είναι και μεταγενέστερο λέει οτι Με βάση τις έως τώρα αποφάσεις της Ευρωτράπεζας, τα ενέχυρα αυτά θα παύσουν να γίνονται αποδεκτά στο τέλος Φεβρουαρίου, που σημαίνει ότι είτε θα πρέπει να υπάρξει παράταση της αποδοχής τους ή να αντικατασταθούν από άλλους τίτλους, προκειμένου να υπάρχει πρόσβαση στον απευθείας δανεισμό από την ΕΚΤ.

“We Told You So”: How U.S. economists predicted the Euro Crisis | Craig Willy | EU affairs journalist

“We Told You So”: How U.S. economists predicted the Euro Crisis | Craig Willy | EU affairs journalist

Cœuré: “Whatever the results of the elections, Greece must continue the reforms” | Craig Willy | EU affairs journalist

Cœuré: “Whatever the results of the elections, Greece must continue the reforms” | Craig Willy | EU affairs journalist

Is Greece’s debt really so unsustainable? | The Exchange

Is Greece’s debt really so unsustainable? | The Exchange :

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi is a former member of the executive board of the European Central Bank and a visiting scholar at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs and at the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome

Overall, Greece’s debt does not look as bad as the simple “175 per cent of GDP” ratio would suggest. The request for a substantial debt cancellation can thus hardly be justified on the basis of sustainability alone. It seems rather to be aimed at creating the room for financing a more expansionary fiscal policy.

Barry Eichengreen : "Grexit déjà vu: is Europe really ready to let its Grecians go?"

Grexit déjà vu: is Europe really ready to let its Grecians go?

Greece and Europe must compromise to avoid Grexit - FT.com

Greece and Europe must compromise to avoid Grexit - FT.com

In contrast, then, to Greece’s back-to-back election campaigns of May and June 2012, the central issue today is not Grexit. It is how whoever becomes prime minister will negotiate a compromise over the next stage of Greece’s rescue programme.

Paul De Grauwe – Debt relief for Greece is necessary to avoid a crisis in the Eurozone

EUROPP – Debt relief for Greece is necessary to avoid a crisis in the Eurozone

Aims of Greek Politician Alexis Tsipras Remain a Mystery in Europe - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Aims of Greek Politician Alexis Tsipras Remain a Mystery in Europe - SPIEGEL ONLINE



"He's (Olli Rehn)  also certain about one thing: "Any possible turbulence that Greece may create could not shake the euro zone like it did in 2010 and still in 2012. The decisive action by the European Central Bank and the financial firewall provided by the European Stability Mechanism (the permanent euro backstop fund) have effectively contained the contagion and can do so in the future as well. This will reduce Greece's bargaining power."

Matt Yglesias : The Eurozone is a political project, not an economic one - 9 facts about the Eurozone crisis - Vox

The Eurozone is a political project, not an economic one - 9 facts about the Eurozone crisis - Vox

Ezra Klein : "How politics makes us stupid" - Vox

How politics makes us stupid - Vox

How to reduce the Greek debt burden? | Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl at Bruegel.org

How to reduce the Greek debt burden? | Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl at Bruegel.org

So what options could be considered to support public debt sustainability in Greece, which would not lead to a direct loss for European lenders? In this blog post we will try to answer this question and calculate the net present value gains for Greece.

Joseph E. Stiglitz : "Europe’s Lapse of Reason"

The issue is not Greece. It is Europe. If Europe does not change its ways – if it does not reform the eurozone and repeal austerity – a popular backlash will become inevitable. Greece may stay the course this time. But this economic madness cannot continue forever. Democracy will not permit it. But how much more pain will Europe have to endure before reason is restored?

Άσκηση Αυτογνωσίας εν όψη Εκλογών!

Πάντα πίστευα ότι το πώς με βλέπει ο άλλος είναι πιο κοντά στο ποιος είμαι από ότι εγώ νομίζω.
Πριν κάποια χρόνια εξεπλάγην όταν συνεργάτης με αποκάλεσε "ξεροκέφαλο" παρ' όλο ότι εγώ διατείνομαι ότι είμαι ευέλικτος και προσαρμοστικός. Έ, λοιπόν είχε δίκιο! Όταν το σκέφτηκα διαπίστωσα ότι 2-3 φορές είχα επιδείξει αλαζονεία και έλλειψη κατανόησης της θέσης του.  Είχε δίκιο!
Το γράφημα που είναι στην θέση της φάτσας μου στο profile είναι το αποτέλεσμα έχοντας κάνει το test του http://www.politicalcompass.org/

Χμ! Αριστερός και Φιλελεύθερος. ΟΚ, κάπως έτσι θα με περιέγραφα και πριν απαντήσω το σχετικό ερωτηματολόγιο.
Σήμερα απάντησα και το ερωτηματολόγιο του ΑΠΘ ( www.helpmevote.gr )
Το αποτέλεσμα είναι εδώ .
Συμφωνία με:
ΠΑΣΟΚ   69%, Το Κίνημα  64%, Το Ποτάμι  56%, ΔΗΜΑΡ  46%, ...
ΣΥΡΙΖΑ  -12%, κλπ.

Τώρα, πώς εγώ ένας Αριστερός/Φιλελεύθερος είμαι τόσο μακρυά απο το ΣΥΡΙΖΑ , που πράγματι είμαι, χρήζει σκέψης. Ποιός φταίει; Εγώ ή ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ;

 

Paris Attack Underscores a Deeper Malaise | Stratfor

Paris Attack Underscores a Deeper Malaise | Stratfor

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard : "Greece’s Latest Travails Are Not Europe’s Problem This Time"

RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece’s Latest Travails Are Not Europe’s Problem This Time

A Grim Outlook No Matter What

The 2015 baseline outlook for Greece is not favorable. A dramatic new downturn cannot be ruled out. The most dreadful aspect of this situation is that it results from the erroneous assumptions and misperceptions of Greek leaders themselves.

(emphasis added)

Whatever happens, Greece will stay in the euro area and explore ways to deal with its huge debt stock, much of which is owned by other euro area governments. Restructuring these loans into 80- to 100-year bonds at concessionary rates or converting them to euro bonds remain feasible options in the longer term—but only if the chronology is right and Greece first completes its economic reform program.

Dani Rodrik: Greek elections, democracy, political trilemma, and all that

Dani Rodrik's weblog: Grek elections, democracy, political trilemma, and all that

The problem is not what Syriza demands...  

The problem is the chain of events that could be unleashed if

Germany and others mismanage the consequences of a Syriza victory.

....

Much will depend on the way the game will be played by all sides and on

market psychology. Which means there is huge uncertainty about the

outcome.

The Future Of European Democracy (pdf)

The Political Trilema 

Greece in 2015: Assessing the 'Syriza' Political Risk | Brookings Institution

via Guntram B. Wolff



Greece in 2015: Assessing the 'Syriza' Political Risk | Brookings Institution

A critical few weeks for the eurozone | Gavyn Davies

A critical few weeks for the eurozone | Gavyn Davies



"Finally, there is the thorny matter of the Greek election (well covered here by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi). So far, the markets seem surprisingly untroubled by this, except insofar as it could delay QE more generally. Investors apparently believe that the inevitable negotiations between the new Greek government and the troika on extended debt maturities will eventually succeed, without causing much contagion elsewhere.

It would obviously be very difficult for the ECB Governing Council to announce a programme of purchases of Greek debt only a few days before the possible election of a Syriza government, pledged to renounce that debt. But that problem could be mitigated by retaining the Greek bond purchases on the balance sheet of the Bank of Greece, not the ECB as a whole.

In any event, it would surely be absurd to allow the extreme problems faced by Greece to derail the monetary policy now urgently needed by the Union as a whole.

How Greece might avoid a Grexit | The Economist

The Economist explains: How Greece might avoid a Grexit | The Economist

A Grexit could happen if Syriza, the left-wing opposition party led by Alexis Tsipras, which is currently ahead in the polls, wins the election and confronts Greece’s creditors with demands they find incompatible with Greece staying in the monetary union.

...

On this occasion, both countries once again have reasons to avoid a Grexit, but the balance of bargaining power has shifted away from Greece to Germany

 

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi | "Until it is resolved, the Greek problem will undermine the whole eurozone" | The Exchange

Until it is resolved, the Greek problem will undermine the whole eurozone | The Exchange

Understanding Society: What is a European?

Understanding Society: What is a European?

German bank exposure to Greece around 18 billion pounds - banks | Reuters

German bank exposure to Greece around 18 billion pounds - banks | Reuters

Germany Does Care About a Greek Exit - Bloomberg View

Germany Does Care About a Greek Exit - Bloomberg View

"This is a poker game in which both players are bluffing.....                             ... It all comes down to whose bluff is more convincing. Though Merkel is playing with a bigger pile of chips, my bet is on Tsipras."

 

Greek Euro Exit Would Hurt Germany, Merkel Parties Say - Bloomberg

Greek Euro Exit Would Hurt Germany, Merkel Parties Say - Bloomberg

“It’s blackmail for Tsipras to say that they won’t honor their commitments anymore,” Brok said. “That doesn’t work. The opportunities for blackmail aren’t as big as they were a few years ago.”

Stratfor's Top 5 Global Events of 2014 | EconMatters

Stratfor's Top 5 Global Events of 2014 | EconMatters

1: Europe's Persistent Decline

The single most important event in 2014 was one that did not occur: Europe did not solve its longstanding economic, political and social problems. I place this as number one.....

Germany wants Greece in the eurozone | EurActiv

Gabriel: Germany wants Greece in the eurozone | EurActiv



Spiegel Online

http://euobserver.com/economic/127085

Greece's Political Crisis Euro - Business Insider

Greece's Political Crisis Euro - Business Insider

Greece’s election: The euro’s next crisis | The Economist

Greece’s election: The euro’s next crisis | The Economist

Euro zone no longer obliged to rescue Greece, Merkel ally says | Reuters

Euro zone no longer obliged to rescue Greece, Merkel ally says | Reuters

Costas Lapavitsas : "Syriza can transform the EU from within – if Europe will let it"

Syriza can transform the EU from within – if Europe will let it | Costas Lapavitsas | Comment is free | theguardian.com



via iskra.gr : "ΕΧΕΙ ΖΩΤΙΚΗ ΣΗΜΑΣΙΑ ΝΑ ΕΦΑΡΜΟΣΕΙ Ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ ΤΟ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑ ΤΟΥ"

Γιατί η αλλαγή στον τίτλο;;;;; Τέλος πάντων!



Γράφει ο Κ.Λ.:

 Τρόικα (Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο), η οποία διέθεσε τεράστια δάνεια στο πλαίσιο του προγράμματος, ζητώντας όμως άνευ προηγουμένου περικοπές στις δημόσιες δαπάνες, αυξήσεις φόρων και κατάρρευση μισθών. 

Δηλαδή; Τα δάνεια που διατέθηκαν έπρεπε να ήταν.... ερ, τεραστιώτερα (sic)