Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...
Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...: The crisis so far. Negotiations at the Eurogroup of finance ministers between Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and the other 18 brok...
Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...
Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Washington Post and New York Times on the Greek Cr...: The crisis so far. Negotiations at the Eurogroup of finance ministers between Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and the other 18 brok...
Monday, June 29, 2015
Greece Turns from Drama to Tragedy
RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece Turns from Drama to Tragedy
The prime minister’s moves have inflicted lasting damage to the Greek economy. The most hopeful scenario from now on is that Greek voters reject his irresponsible call for a “no” vote on the referendum and approve a return to serious negotiations with the Troika of international creditors, returning Greece to the European fold.
Thorsten Beck : "Greece – the day after: Time for a fresh start?" | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
Greece – the day after: Time for a fresh start? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
The breakdown of negotiations between Greece and the Troika comes as a shock. It is not, however, the end of the game. This column argues that the rupture can serve as a starting point for a new relationship between Greece and its creditors – an approach that does not provide fresh cash to the Greek government and does not impose specific policy reforms from outside.
Barry Eichengreen ¨Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence
Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence
The European Central Bank supported the Greek banking system with emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) right up to the very end of June. Only when Greece stopped negotiating did the Central Bank stop increasing ELA. And only then did a full-fledged bank run break out.....
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his government should have had the courage of its convictions. If it was unwilling to accept the creditors’ final offer, then it should have stated its refusal, pure and simple. If it preferred to continue negotiating, then it should have continued negotiating. The decision to call a referendum in midstream only heightened uncertainty. It was a transparent effort to evade responsibility. It was the action of leaders more interested in retaining office than in minimizing the cost to the country of the crisis.
Sunday, June 28, 2015
Karl Whelan : "ECB Decision Likely Means Greek Banks Stay Closed" — Bull Market — Medium
ECB Decision Likely Means Greek Banks Stay Closed — Bull Market — Medium
the only way the Greek banks could finance the (presumably very large) demands for withdrawals on Monday would have been to get access to additional funds from the Bank of Greece in the form of additional ELA. That will not be possible now, so most likely the banks will not open on Monday....
There is probably still a small window of opportunity left to keep Greece in the euro, even if the banks don’t open tomorrow.
Greek Referendum Is More Con Than Democracy - Bloomberg View
Greek Referendum Is More Con Than Democracy - Bloomberg View
Tsipras and his party want this vote to legitimize their decision to default and exit the euro, most likely after that decision has already been made, without actually telling Greeks that this is the choice they are making. It gives further weight to my suspicion that Syriza’s erratic negotiating behavior for the last five months has been driven by a preference for default and exiting the euro they could not express, because the party had no mandate for it.
Saturday, June 27, 2015
George Tsebelis : "Αγωνία στην Αθήνα" | Foreign Affairs - Hellenic Edition
Αγωνία στην Αθήνα | Foreign Affairs - Hellenic Edition
Περίληψη:Ως αποτέλεσμα της μπερδεμένης στρατηγικής της, η Ελλάδα δεν ήταν σε θέση να κερδίσει ή να επικοινωνήσει με συμμάχους, έχασε την αξιοπιστία της, και ήγειρε ερωτήματα σχετικά με την πίστη της στην Ευρώπη. Κατά μια έννοια, η αποτυχία της χώρας αντανακλούσε ακριβώς τις αντιφατικές προτιμήσεις του ελληνικού λαού: Και να μείνουν στην ζώνη του ευρώ, και να απαλλαγούν από την λιτότητα.
Angry Bear » Greek Tale(s)
Angry Bear » Greek Tale(s)
"the Greek saga is one of austere budget policies imposed on the Greek government by the “troika”.
Comment: Exactly so; there 's no argument on this.
On the other hand, how dandy it would have been for a 70 yrs old pensioner who has lost 45% of his income since 2010 if the troika had assumed the financing of the Government Deficit "ad infinitum", as Yanis would say.
"the Greek saga is one of austere budget policies imposed on the Greek government by the “troika”.
Comment: Exactly so; there 's no argument on this.
On the other hand, how dandy it would have been for a 70 yrs old pensioner who has lost 45% of his income since 2010 if the troika had assumed the financing of the Government Deficit "ad infinitum", as Yanis would say.
Friday, June 26, 2015
globalinequality: The two trilemmas today
globalinequality: The two trilemmas today: A t a talk on global inequality that I gave at IESE Business School in Barcelona this week , Professor Francesc Trillas asked me a very g...
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Economic crisis: The global impact of a Greek default - AEI
Economic crisis: The global impact of a Greek default - AEI
Introduction
Recent economic and political developments in Greece suggest that it is only
matter of time before that country both defaults on its large public debt and imposes
capital controls. Those developments could very well pave the way for Greece’s exit
from the Euro within the next twelve months. Were that to occur, one must expect
that Greece’s economic and political crisis will deepen, which could lead to that
country becoming a failed state.
Greece and the politics of brinksmanship | Brookings Institution
Greece and the politics of brinksmanship | Brookings Institution
The Greek government is in the middle of very intense negotiations for a deal with its European creditors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for additional funding in exchange for agreed policy steps by Greece. Further, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will need to successfully sell any compromise to his parliament, where the greatest problems will come from within his own Syriza Party. Whatever the ultimate outcome, the process of getting to this stage highlights several interesting political and geopolitical points of wider applicability.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Monday, June 22, 2015
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Everybody Shares Blame in Greek Crisis - Hugo Dixon, The New York Times
Everybody Shares Blame in Greek Crisis - The New York Times
If Greece collapses, there will be giant dollops of blame to go round. The biggest ones will stick on whoever behaves most unreasonably in the stand-off between Athens and its creditors, which could easily end in default and disaster.
Saturday, June 20, 2015
RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece’s Fate: High Noon in Brussels
RealTime Economic Issues Watch | Greece’s Fate: High Noon in Brussels
What will not be decided [on June 22nd] is whether Greece remains a member of the euro area. Despite all the talk recently about a Grexit, such an eventuality is not in the cards, no matter what the outcome is on Monday....
For all their blustering and chest-thumping defiance, Tsipras and Syriza have ensured that no good options are leftfromfor themselves, Greece, or the euro area.
The Unbearable Logic of the European Union | The National Interest
The Unbearable Logic of the European Union | The National Interest
...a common currency implies that the EU member states have roughly the same rates of growth, inflation and competitiveness or must adjust accordingly.
Friday, June 19, 2015
Mohamed A. El-Erian : EU Leaders Need an Emergency Plan B for Greece - Bloomberg View
EU Leaders Need an Emergency Plan B for Greece - Bloomberg View
Averting an ugly accident that would make Greece's continued euro membership virtually impossible would require the highest political authorities in Europe to be flexible, courageous and open to compromise, (emphasis added)
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Why a Greece Budget Deal With the IMF and Eurozone Is So Hard - US News
Why a Greece Budget Deal With the IMF and Eurozone Is So Hard - US News
If some financial assistance is granted, it will buy a few more weeks to keep the negotiations alive, but it will not solve Greece's structural problems. This is a country without a viable business model, where 40 percent of its exports today are raw materials, and there is no solid and technologically advanced manufacturing base. It is difficult to understand what will generate economic growth in the coming years unless profound changes in the economy and society take place.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
What If Greece Just Disappeared? - Bloomberg View
What If Greece Just Disappeared? - Bloomberg View
One morning we'd wake up and find no Greek news on our website of choice, no links to Greek stories on Twitter, no mention of Greece in European Union documents or Eurostat reports. A look at the map would reveal a country called Hellas still jutting into the Mediterranean to the south of Bulgaria, Macedonia and Albania. It would be just another Balkan country.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Monday, June 15, 2015
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Friday, June 12, 2015
Berenberg : Greece: 12 June
www.berenberg.de/uploads/tx_news/150612_Greece.pdf
What Greece needs. The chart also spells out the only way to fix Greece. Athens needs to return to policies similar
to those that are working in Spain. It needs a flexible labour market, an affordable pension system, a simple tax
system and a public sector that throws less rather than more obstacles in the way of private businesses. By and
large, these are the reforms that creditors are insisting on. These are the reforms that could end the Tsipras
recession. Let’s hope that, after his dangerous brinkmanship over the last few days, Tsipras learns his lesson fast.
Finance Minister Schäuble and Merkel Tussle Over Grexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Finance Minister Schäuble and Merkel Tussle Over Grexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble appears to have given up hope of a satisfactory outcome to the Greek crisis. Unlike the chancellor, he is willing to cut the rope on Athens. But will he dare to dig in his heels and defy Merkel?
Non-meeting of minds | The Economist
Non-meeting of minds | The Economist
After almost four months of snail-paced talks, it looks as if the creditors may now call Greece’s bluff.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
DNA Deciphers Roots of Modern Europeans - NYTimes.com
DNA Deciphers Roots of Modern Europeans - NYTimes.com
today’s Europeans descend from three groups who moved into Europe at different stages of history.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Holger Schmieding, berenberg: GREECE UPDATE: THE POLITICAL OPTIONS
www.berenberg.de/uploads/tx_news/150608_Macro-news_Greece.pdf
Our long-held view remains: 30% risk of Grexit; 70% probability that Greece will stay in the euro, possibly after
some serious political turmoil in the meantime.
Monday, June 8, 2015
Mohamed El-Erian : "Subplots Cloud Greek Drama"
Subplots Cloud Greek Drama - Bloomberg View
Facing an intensifying trust deficit and worsening coordination failures, the leading actors -- the region's political leaders -- increasingly risk being relegated to secondary roles. Meanwhile, the ensemble in this drama -- citizens subjected to a protracted and suffocating economic and financial crisis -- is increasingly taking on more of the decision-making role on the ground. The more this occurs, the greater the probability that a new and very different storyline will impose itself -- one that focuses on the uncoordinated, disorderly and uncontrolled exit of Greece from the euro zone.
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Goodbye, Greece | Money Observer
Goodbye, Greece | Money Observer
continuing to provide financial liquidity to an economy that could never realistically wean itself off financial aid would just be throwing good money after bad. As such the Troika would likely have little choice but to allow Greece to default as the lesser of two evils, at least over any reasonable time horizon.
Friday, June 5, 2015
Greece: Seeking a way forward | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
Greece: Seeking a way forward | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
Greece seems to be on the verge of an agreement that would release much needed funds. This column argues that an agreement on completion of the second programme will not restore confidence, nor will it resolve the deep economic, financial and political uncertainties that confront Greece today. The focus should swiftly shift to the design of an efficient, realistic and truly reforming new programme.
Carsten Brzeski: Eurozone: Final deadline postponed again
Merkelnomics: Eurozone: Final deadline postponed again
The Greek government yesterday bought some new time by officially requesting a bundling of this month’s IMF payments. A move which shows how serious Greece’s financial situation is but also how stalemated the negotiations are.
Wednesday, June 3, 2015
When Is Repaying Public Debt Not Of The Essence? | iMFdirect - The IMF Blog
When Is Repaying Public Debt Not Of The Essence? | iMFdirect - The IMF Blog
A radical solution for high debt is to do nothing at all—just live with it. Indeed, from a welfare economics perspective—abstracting from real world problems such as rollover risk—this would be optimal.
Tuesday, June 2, 2015
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