The Economist | The pandemic will leave the rich world deep in debt, and force some hard choices

" ...one way or another, the bills will eventually come due. When they do, there may not be a painless way of settling them"

Peter Turchin : "Italy Turns the Corner"

Last week my analysis of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy yielded a very depressing result: despite all the measures taken by the government, there was no sign that they were making a difference. The epidemic was still growing exponentially with dire implications for the overall number of deaths it could cause. ... Rerunning the analysis on the more recent data (up to March 31) results in a much more optimistic conclusion. There are now clear signs that Italy has turned the corner. Here are the results:

Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years,  (pdf)

Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues: How Elites Shape Mass Opinion Across International Issues

via New York Times | The Interpreter

Despite intense interest in the nature and malleability of public opinion about foreign policy, there remains debate over when and how elite messages shape mass opinion on international issues, especially whether the informational or partisan components of elite cues dominate (pdf)

Penelope’s (In)Fidelity

a Mantinean tradition that Penelope was expelled from Ithaca on a suspicion of infidelity.

Don’t Use Taxpayer Money to Bailout Investors Like Me

When we invested in stocks and bonds, we knew we might have to face a storm or two. The high returns we received on our investments compensated us for this risk. When the government bails out a corporation, it is letting investors like me keep all the profits in good times without bearing the losses in bad times.

Also
Economics, Law and Finance Professors from Major Universities Write to Congress : “Bail Out People Before Large Corporations”

Mental models and human reasoning | Philip N. Johnson-Laird

To be rational is to be able to reason. Thirty years ago psychologists believed that human reasoning depended on formal rules of inference akin to those of a logical calculus. This hypothesis ran into difficulties, which led to an alternative view: reasoning depends on

via Nick Chater at The Conversation