Greek Update: Alexis's Choice : Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank

If it can’t go on like this, it won’t. At some point in the next 3-5 weeks, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will have to make the tough choice: does he want to go down in history as the prime minister who completed the modernisation of his country, turning it into a Spanish-style success? Or as the one who led his country into the abyss of Grexit, potentially turning it into a populist paradise like Venezuela, just without the oil? Whatever he does, he will get into trouble with major parts of his own power base, either with the pro-euro realists who are in line with Greek public opinion or with the antiEuropean hardline communists who make up some 30% of Syriza.