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Sunday, November 30, 2014

Simon Wren-Lewis : "Can a country be too competitive?"

mainly macro: Can a country be too competitive?: In my earlier post on the failure of the Eurozone to understand the lessons of the Great Depression, I talked about Germany becoming ‘too ...

also, Francesco Saraceno : "Labour Costs: Who is the Outlier?"

Paul Krugman : "Being Bad Europeans" -

Being Bad Europeans -

If you try to identify countries whose policies were way out of line before the crisis, have hurt Europe since the crisis, and refuse to learn from experience, everything points to Germany as the worst actor. ...
via Mark Thoma 

Monday, November 24, 2014

Daniel Gros : Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area? | The Centre for European Policy Studies

Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area? | The Centre for European Policy Studies

"The author advises that the aim of economic policy should be to increase consumption, rather than investment overall. Increasing infrastructure investment might be justified in some member countries, but it is not a ‘free lunch’ when efficiency levels are low, which seems to be the case in some of the financially stressed euro area countries."

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Does Management Matter In Schools?

CEP | Publications | Results by Abstract

Nicholas  Bloom,  Renata  Lemos,  Raffaella  Sadun,  John  Van Reenen  

Philippe Legrain on Europe | Five Books | Five Books

Philippe Legrain on Europe | Five Books | Five Books

Give Greece a Chance - Bloomberg View

Give Greece a Chance - Bloomberg View

"If too much austerity puts Syriza in charge, expect an end to fiscal discipline. The damage, though, won't stop there. The entire European project will be endangered. Tsipras might be willing to force losses on creditors unilaterally. Rising opposition parties in Portugal and Spain are similarly inclined, and they are watching closely. If markets begin to fear a wave of defaults, the resulting turmoil could thrust the whole of Europe back into crisis."

Friday, November 21, 2014

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Barry Eichengreen at the FT : The bond market’s dance over European debt will not last forever -

The bond market’s dance over European debt will not last forever -

The implied surpluses are mind-boggling. Under reasonable assumptions about growth rates and interest rates, the average annual primary surplus for the decade ending in 2030 would exceed 4 per cent for Spain, 5 per cent for Ireland, Italy and Portugal, and 7 per cent for Greece. Put simply, no country can run such monumental surpluses for such extended periods without inciting a taxpayer revolt.
But sadly growth cannot be conjured up out of thin air.
European policy makers have shown an inability to conjure it up any other way.
The other alternative is debt restructuring. European officials continue to dance around the idea of writing down public debt, promising Greece lower interest rates and longer maturities but denying the need for more fundamental restructuring and for applying such measures more widely. The events of recent weeks make clear that they will not be able to dance much longer.

America’s bank bailouts worked - The Washington Post

America’s bank bailouts worked - The Washington Post

The United States actually got the big details of the bailout right – and for this reason, American taxpayers made money on the deal: about $8-10 billion, excluding the non-bank parts of the bailout.
The United Kingdom and Germany, by way of contrast, both enacted bailouts that were less effective in helping taxpayers share in the potential upside of the bailout. As a result, U.K. and German taxpayers were stuck with large book losses on their bailouts: $14 billion for the United Kingdom, and $55 billion for Germany, which is a lot of money, even for German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Κώστας Λαπαβίτσας και "διαβουκόλευση" στοιχείων της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ

τα στοιχεία δείχνουν ότι στις αρχές του 2010 η ελληνική οικονομία φαινόταν να περνάει σε ανάκαμψη ...

Δηλαδή; Αν το 2010 συνέχιζε να υπάρχει δυνατότητα δανεισμού, όλα θα ήταν μια χαρά. Κάτι δεν πάει καλά όμως!
Ο κ. Κ.Λ. πήρε στοιχεία της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ και "κατασκεύασε" τον Πίνακα 2 στην ανάρτησή του, που πράγματι δείχνει αυτό που ισχυρίζεται!
Μόνο που ο Πίνακας 2 λέει ψέματα. (είναι σχετικά εύκολο να πεις ψέματα αν ξέρεις Στατιστική).
Τα ανεπεξέργαστα στοιχεία της ΕΛΣΤΑΤ για το ΑΕΠ (% αλλαγή 3-μήνου) είναι
2008: Q1   +7,0 %         2009: Q1  -4,7%       2010: Q1  -1,7 %
          Q2    -0,8                       Q2  +2,6                    Q2  -2,7
          Q3    -0,6                       Q3  -0,4                     Q3  -3,4
          Q4    -1,1                       Q4  -0,1                     Q4  -1,5

Από την "άφιξη" της κρίσης - 2008 Q2- μέχρι και σήμερα, τα μόνα 3-μηνα με θετικό πρόσημο είναι το Β΄του 2009 και τα Α' (0.8%) και Β' (0,3%) του 2014.
Πού την είδε ο κ. Κ.Λ. την ανάκαμψη στις αρχές του 2010   ?!?!?!


Monday, November 17, 2014

Albert Weale, Policy Network - The democratic disconnect

Policy Network - The democratic disconnect

In the eurozone, the EU needs greater legitimacy at the national level not only to secure space for domestic politics but also to secure respect for social and economic commitments over time

Friday, November 14, 2014

Peter Dorman: Rules versus Discretion in Macropolicy

EconoSpeak: Rules versus Discretion in Macropolicy: Economists really like policy rules.  Remember the monetarist bubble of the late 70s?  Just follow a rule for steady expansion of M2, and le...

Thursday, November 13, 2014

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Tax Systems

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Tax Systems

Συριζα καί Επιχειρηματικά (κόκκινα) Δάνεια

Σήμερα ο βουλευτής του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Κοντονής, ή κάπως έτσι, ρωτήθηκε γιά τα ληξιπρόθεσμα επιχειρηματικά δάνεια. Εξήγησε, με όλη την σιγουριά του αδαούς, οτι η αρνητική θέση του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ οφείλεται στο ότι "το καρτέλ των τραπεζών είναι σε κομβικό σημείο" να αποφασίζει γι αυτά!
Προφανώς ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ προορίζει τον κ.Κοντονή για να αποφασίζει και να κρίνει ποιές επιχειρήσεις θα κλείσουν και ποιές θα (ανα)-χρηματοδοτηθούν. Και καλλά, ο κ. Κοντονής πλέει σε πελάγη άγνοιας, το οικονομικό επιτελείο του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δέν  χαμπαρίζει απο τραπεζική λειτουργία; Σίγουρα ξέρει, αλλά προφανώς δέν απευθύνεται σε πολίτες που ξέρουν και βάζει ταλαίπωρους Κοντονήδες να λένε χαζομάρες.

disclaimer (ερμηνευτική ρήτρα)
Τούτο το blog ΔΕΝ είναι για σχολιασμό, αλλά δέν...άντεξα!

Timothy Taylor : Why Experts Buy Generic

Οι ειδικοί καί οι ¨πληροφορημένοι" αγοράζουν γενόσημα!


Tuesday, November 11, 2014

mainly macro: Getting the Germany argument right

mainly macro: Getting the Germany argument right: As the Eurozone experiences a prolonged demand-deficient recession, and given Germany’s pivotal role in making that happen, it is important...

Michael Miebach 's column for Policy Network : "There is no 'German problem' in the Eurozone"

Paul De Grauwe : "Greece: The start of a systemic crisis of the Eurozone?" | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Greece: The start of a systemic crisis of the Eurozone? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Things are different in some individual countries, in Greece in particular, a country with a weak political system that has been adding government debt at a much higher rate than the rest of the Eurozone and that in addition has a debt level exceeding 100% of GDP. So, while the Eurozone as a whole is no closer to a debt crisis than is the US, some of its member states have been moving closer to such a crisis.
This column, first published 15 December 2009, shows ...

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Greece : EU Commission Forcasts , Autumn 2014

Uncertainty a major risk
Greece’s GDP growth could turn out weaker than forecast if uncertainty on policy implementation has a stronger-than-projected effect on confidence
and investment, or if geopolitical events have a bigger-than-expected impact in the region. On the upside, exports may exceed expectations and investors’ confidence could pick up owing, in particular to the successful processing of nonperforming loans and to the positive results of the Asset Quality Review and stress tests. Overall, the balance of risks points to the downside since uncertainty is significant for the next few months.

Bernard Delbecque : EconoMonitor » A Coordinated Fiscal Response to Revive the Euro Area Economy

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » A Coordinated Fiscal Response to Revive the Euro Area Economy

Douglas Elliott : Three Potential Economic Outcomes for Europe | RealClearMarkets

Three Potential Economic Outcomes for Europe | RealClearMarkets

  1. It was just a glitch (20% probability?)
  2. The Euro Crisis is Back (probability 10%?)
  3. The Usual Muddling Through (70% probability?)

Sunday, November 2, 2014

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. 

Δημόσιοι Υπάλληλοι Έβγαλαν στο Εξωτερικό 1,5 δις.

Το θέμα της  περασμένης βδομάδας. WOW, ανατριχίλα!
Συνέχεια όμως μαθαίνουμε ότι, κατά κύριο λόγο, πρόκειται για γιατρούς και εκπαιδευτικούς, που τυχαίνει να είναι/ήταν  και Δημόσιοι Υπάλληλοι.
Πού και ποια η έκπληξη;
Το 2012 δημοσιεύτηκε έρευνα (στο αρχείο μου και εδώ pdf) για το φαινόμενο στην Ελλάδα, της οποίας ένα συμπέρασμα ήταν ότι ο πρώτος και ο τρίτος από τους κορυφαίους κλάδους στην απόκρυψη φορολογητέας ύλης ήταν Γιατροί, και Εκπαιδευτικοί. Η πλειοψηφία αυτών απασχολούνται στο δημόσιο.

Η κυβέρνηση, για δικούς της λόγους, επέλεξε να παίξει ένα επικοινωνιακό παιχνίδι. Τα ΜΜΕ το μεγέθυναν.