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Friday, November 30, 2012

Bonds Buy Back

[update]
Ben Walsh at Reuters Counterparties devotes his post of 3d Dec. to the matter with lots of interesting views and links.

I have been scratching my head over  the subject ever since the early hours of Tuesday last. Still, it 's a tough nut to crack.
First of all: The whole package stands or fall on this. If it is successful, fine! The package is doable and things might -just might, mind- get stabilized sometime in the second half of next year. BUT, what if it is NOT successful? Then: what? no support package?
Anyway, of all the comments I have read, probably the most succinct is the one by Marc Chandler
The rub, however, lies at the core.   If the European official efforts succeed, the price of the Greek bond should increase, especially after the next couple of years.  Why should an investors cash in now ?  

This suggests that only those that "have to" will participate in what is said is a voluntary program.  The likely candidates are not foreign investors, but domestic institutions, including government pensions and insurance companies.  
SS. Visit Marc's MarcToMarket Blog as you can play with an interactive graph of The Economist, he hosts.

A very interesting paper on the topic is Paolo Manasse's at voxeu d/d 5th Feb 2011  

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