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Monday, January 21, 2013

IMF or not to IMF! The dilemma in early 2010


Αυτές τις μέρες άρχισε μιά συζήτηση στο θέμα της συμμετοχής του ΔΝΤ στο πρόγραμμα στήριξης. Αντί να βάλλω κάποια θέματα απο μνήμης ας ανατρέξω στο τί λένε οι Geoffrey R D Underhill και Jasper Blom, του Παν/μίου του Αμστερνταμ στο e-report του  CEPR " Global Financial Integration, Twin Crises, and the Enduring Search for Financial Stability" στο κομμάτι που αναφέρονται στα δικά μας.
Όταν  άρχισαν οι πρώτες "άτυπες" τριγωνικές  επαφές (Κυβέρνηση-ΔΝΤ-Μερκοζύ), Γενάρη/Φλεβάρη του 2010,....
... the German Chancellor was serious in asserting that each country would have to keep its own house in order and satisfy the markets in terms of confidence, keeping to the ‘rules’ or policy standards underpinning monetary union....
         ....there would be no bail-out as per the terms of the Treaty of Maastricht, no matter how exceptional the circumstances and despite G20 exhortations. Unbelievably, it was even suggested by the Chancellery that possible official refinancing which would be provided would carry market interest rates
......Greek bond spreads then rose dramatically relative to German levels
.......when creditor countries realised their own banks (that made the loans in the first place) were being dragged under once again, talks began in earnest. 

Είμαστε στον Φλεβάρη του 2010

.....Pressured by the European Commission, the first casualty Greece agreed in early February 2010 to an ambitious plan to reduce its deficit
....Domestic adjustment was still thought to be sufficient to deal
with the unfolding Greek drama

Αρχές Μάρτη...
....On 4 March, ahead of meetings of the Greek Prime Minister Papandreou with Merkel and Sarkozy, Greece threw in the towel and announced it was prepared to seek IMF assistance if European support was not forthcoming.( Financial Times, 4 March 2010 )
....to the bewilderment of all, Chancellor Merkel declared that there would be no rescue until Greece’s debt-financing capacity was exhausted.
.....Merkel insisted that the crisis should not be discussed at the EU summit because Greece had not requested help

Όταν πλέον δέν πήγαινε άλλο η Α.Μέρκελ συναίνεσε σε Μηχανισμό Στήριξης με τον όρο οτι το ΔΝΤ θα έβαζε knowhow.
Υπήρχε πιθανότητα ο ΓΑΠ να ζητήσει μη συμμετοχή του ΔΝΤ;








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