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Friday, February 12, 2016

Poul M. Thomsen: Greece: Toward a Workable Program | iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

Greece: Toward a Workable Program | iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

a program must add up: the combination of reforms plus debt relief must give us and the international community reasonable assurances that by the end of Greece’s next program, after almost a decade of dependence on European and IMF assistance, Greece will finally be able to stand on its own.
the past six years have shown that the scope and pace of reforms acceptable to the Greek society is not commensurate with an early improvement of productivity and sustained high growth.
pension reforms cannot be avoided by simply assuming higher tax collections in the future.
Greek budget needs to transfer some 10 percent of GDP to cover the gaping hole in the pension system, compared to a European average of some 2½ percent. Clearly, this is unsustainable.
social pressures have already forced reversals of course—under both the previous and the current government—and Greece is unfortunately much further away from its medium-term goals than it was in mid-2014
We have yet to see a credible plan for how Greece will reach the very ambitious medium-term surplus target that is key to the government’s plans for restoring debt sustainability


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