Thursday, February 28, 2013

Ricardian Equivalence is bunk ... in Greece!

Well,  Ricardian Equivalence is most certainly not to be observed applying in Greece. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Neither, methinks, as it is irrelevant for Greece.
Thomas Grennes and Andris Strazds at voxeu are having another look at the topic, focusing, mainly, on the EZ.
First, a quote from their, admittedly interesting, column:
The logic behind it is that as the government gets more indebted, people would put aside more money in expectation of higher taxes in the future. 
 The inclusion of Greece in the sample of countries they chose to test the correlation between Government-Debt/GDP  and Houshold-Net-Fianancial-Assets/GDP proved very unfortunate, as it produced R-squared value of 0.2172
When they wisely took Greece out of the sample of countries, the R-squared value jumped to 0.526 (!)

Now, this might be an interesting topic for domestic academic economists to goad some graduate students of theirs to produce a thesis or two!

Not being an academic economist myself, I can propose one -I am sure there are more than one- possible explanation.
In Greece the households with Net Financial Assets have exempted themselves from paying taxes. The tax-paying households accumulated Net Financial Obligations.
As the saying goes: Greece is a Special Case !!!!

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

the 2013 EEAg report

Italian election results...

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/116d74fc-8033-11e2-aed5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2M70VaU8v
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-press-urges-italian-politicians-to-think-of-euro-zone-a-885889.html

A!, well! It seems that all that is worth said about the election results in Italy, has already been said.
Let's turn to the popolo who more than 50% voted for a clown and/or a comedian.
The Italian economy is ticking thanks to Draghi's whatever-it-takes-to-save-the-EURO pledge. Italy has a small primary surplus, just enough to cover interest payments on her debt at current interest on her ten year bonds. Without Draghi's bazooka on the table, markets would dump her bonds. Merkel and Co. of the core EZ say so and whoever doesn't like it might go their own way.
Now it seems that the Italian popolo does not like it and the clown and the comedian are about to bring the house down. It is all very democratic! The popolo spoke: "no more Teutonic austerity ... "
Angela, being a very democratic soul and having her own people in mind, is just about fed up and ready to make the big shift: "Right, let's dump the EURO and bring back our beloved DeutscheMark. And, hey! Weidmann, don't forget to collect the TARGET2 balances before we go".
Curtain!

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Great quote

"The key concepts with which to approach any problem were to understand the choices available to those involved, to define the relevant costs, and to understand the constraints under which choices are made, ... "
David Glasner  , economist at the Federal Trade Commission, Washignton, DC , on Armen Alchian 

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Επιχειρηματολογία ή Αγγιτάτσια;

Στα μέσα των '90'ς παρακολουθούσα σεμινάριο πάνω στην Διαπραγμάτευση στο INSEAD όταν ο καθηγητής/εισηγητής εμφατικά είπε:
'Αν δέν έχεις τρία ισχυρά αντεπιχειρήματα στην θέση, που υποστηρίζεις, δέν έχεις μελετήσει το θέμα επαρκώς... μελέτησέ το κι άλλο!
Έ, λοιπόν, πρίν απ' αυτόν, ο John Stuart Mill είχε γράψει

He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that.

His reasons may be good, and no one may have been able to refute them. But if he is equally unable to refute the reasons on the opposite side, if he does not so much as know what they are, he has no ground for preferring either opinion... Nor is it enough that he should hear the opinions of adversaries from his own teachers, presented as they state them, and accompanied by what they offer as refutations. He must be able to hear them from persons who actually believe them...he must know them in their most plausible and persuasive form.”


Friday, February 22, 2013

"Προσδεθείτε για την Απογείωση" Α.Σαμαράς

Η Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission δημοσιοποίησε την πρόβλεψη της Επιτροπής για την πορεία της οικονομίας στην ΕΕ. (pdf)
Το καλύτερο που έχουμε να περιμένουμε είναι μήπως και βρούμε το πάτωμα στην πτώση. Τα περι "απογείωσης" είναι μάλλον προοπτική 10ετίας!