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Monday, January 26, 2015

(How the markets weigh the likely course of) Greek austerity after Syriza | FT Alphaville

Greek austerity after Syriza | FT Alphaville
Gary Jenkins of ING Capital, on the political calculations:
exactly what kind of change will be achievable is a moot point as Ms Merkel may prefer to see Greece leave the Eurozone than allow Mr Tsipras to dictate the entire economic policy of the euro area, although the most likely outcome remains a compromise which maintains the status quo because the alternatives are potentially so negative. 
Giovanni Zanni of Credit Suisse note the key question of the junior party in the coalition.
...   Markets will probably be  worried if ANEL is chosen  
Europe is ready to be more flexible, we believe: see for example the recent relaxation of the Stability Pact rules last week. And Greece has a series of incentives (QE of its bonds, various support mechanisms coming from Europe) to agree on a common path of reforms, we believe. 

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